The Future of the Jays Rotation

Looks like for the upcoming season we will be seeing a Jays rotation of Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Rzepczynski, and Tallet, though I'm personally hoping 26 year old pickup Dana Eveland takes the fifth spot. With Drabek, Stewart, and Cecil all close, there will be some decisions to be made very soon. Not to mention the possibility of McGowan and even Litsch coming back into the fold. With things likely to get even more complicated for 2011 and beyond, the Jays look to be in a position to deal one or more of these guys, as there simply isn't room for them all. The questions become who gets traded, who moves to the pen, and most importantly do any of these guys become ACEs?

RHP Shaun Marcum
Marcum is a fan favorite, and will be the lead dog for the Jays in 2010 after coming back from TJ surgery. He'll be a guy I'll be rooting for, but I think he's the most likely to get moved. I like him tolead the staff this season, but in terms of going forward I think he could be our most tradeable asset. He'll be hitting UFA sooner than the rest, and as he has a reputation through the league as a winner, I think alot of teams will be interested in him come trade deadline or next offseason.

LHP Ricky Romero
I'm big fan of RR. Throw out the minor league stats, and look what this kid did after being remodeled by Arnsburg last spring. Ricky defines competitiveness, and his stuff is better than you think. Great 4 pitch mix with a fastball that was top 6 in average velocity among lefty starters last year, his change and slider could also develop into plus pitches. Romero just needs to learn to keep his emotions in check, and hit his spots. I'm not sure he can be an ace, but I can see Romero developing into an awesome #2-3 and clubhouse leader.

RHP Brandon Morrow
Armed with a fastball that averages over 95mph and can touch triple digits, Morrow is a fireballer. We've all read the articles on how he finally knows he's a starter, and how comfortable he is feeling in that role. This is a guy who was taken above some of the best young pitchers in baseball in the 2006 draft because he has every bit of the stuff to be an ace. He's a real darkhorse this year for me, and could end up breaking out big time for the Jays this season. There is ace potential here, but needs to show and prove what he can do as a starter. Worse case scenario he still has a role in the bigs no matter what because of the heat.

LHP Marc Rzepczynski
Rzep is a cocky pitcher who is a personal favorite of mine. He has a slider that is swing and miss against rightys and lefties, and he locates his pitches. For Marc it's a question of keeping that pitch count down, something I'm not sure he will be able to do, but he's a guy who will give you 6 innings and the lead more times than not, and an excellent back of the rotation type going forward. I consider him underrated and that's why I don't see the Jays looking to move him.

RHP Kyle Drabek
As the focal point of Alex Alphabets first big move as GM, I believe Drabek is probably the safest bet to stick around. Dynamite curveball with good stuff overall, bulldog mentality, and impressive ST debut with the Jays, I can't see AA moving the pitcher who could be the most likely to end up an Ace and was the focal point of the Halladay deal.

RHP Zach Stewart
The former reliever posses two plus pitches. A mid 90s fastball that cuts away from lefties and into righty's, and a high 80s slider that cuts in the opposite direction. AA has stated he views Stewart as a #3 type, but with all our depth, and considering that filthy 2 pitch combo, he could end up sliding back into the pen or being dealt.

LHP Brett Cecil
Cecil is known for his intimidating presence and filthy slider, but looked a little shell shocked when he was rushed to the majors last year. He was just last year the Jays top pitching prospect, but his future with the Jays is as uncertain as anyones now. Another former reliever who could move back to the pen or end up getting dealt.

RHP Dustin McGowan
McGowan has all-star stuff, but keeps on getting hurt. He was developing a filthy change to go with his power arsenal before he got hurt in '08, we will see how he comes back. Moving him to the pen could help keep that live arm healthy.

My thoughts on "The Manager", and the Jays lineup for 2010

It's become popular mantra among the many well known Jays blogs to shit on Cito Gaston and question everything he does. I was not a fan of bringing him back for 1 year in what is obviously the first year of a rebuild, but I do recognize that he does know a thing or two. The topic du jour with opening day fast approaching, is what to to do with a lineup that lacks a true cleanup hitter as well as true top of the order types. Cito has hinted that the following lineup could be what we see on opening day:

1. Jose Bautista, RF
2. Aaron Hill, 2B
3. Adam Lind, DH
4. Vernon Wells, CF
5. Lyle Overbay, 1B
6. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
7. John Buck, C
8. Alex Gonzalez, SS
9. Travis Snider, LF

For the most part this all makes sense to me, and here's why:

On Bautista Leading Off
We'll see if he platoons with Gathright or not, but there is no doubt in my mind, that against LHP at least, Bautista is the right guy to be leading off. Firstly I like Bautista in RF. He is a excellent defender there, and with all the young pitchers that are going to be seeing the mound this year, I'm a fan of having as many plus defenders on the field as we can.

While he hasn't gotten very consistent PT over his career, this is a guy with a solid tool set for a right fielder. He's flashed some power and wheels for years, and most importantly for a leadoff candidate, he's shown he can work a count into a walk (.382 OBP against LHP last year). If he does struggle against rightys, give Gathright his shot. To put it simply, we have nothing to lose by giving either an opportunity to run with that leadoff role, as it's not like we have a youngster in the wings who could step into it. Not only that, JB is still young enough that if he does bring it, he could be somewhat of a short term answer. If he fails, we'll just have to move on, but it's not like we have much invested in either player (JB or JG), and expectations are low for the year anyway.

On Hill and Lind Hitting 2/3
These Silver Sluggers are the two guys in our lineup (along with Wells) that are expected to produce offense both in the present and in the future. People clamoring for Lind to hit cleanup, a role he has voiced that he is uncomfortable with and is not his long term spot anyway, should quiet down. Lind is a classic 3 hole hitter, is comfortable there, and thus should just be left in that spot. He's a big piece for us going forward, and hopefully he's hitting 30+ bombs with a .300 average and plenty of walks there for the next decade. No need to mess with that.

Hill is an interesting case though, as I'm not sure where his natural spot in a lineup is. Last year he looked like a #3 hitter, he's always been touted as a 2 hole type, but ultimately I think Hill might settle into the 5 or 6 hole. Hill looks like a RBI guy with power, who maybe doesn't pass the baton enough to hit higher. Still, you take that from your second baseman any day of the week. He excelled in the 2 hole last year, and this makes the most sense for him. For 2010 at least.

On Wells Hitting Cleanup
Like it or not, we are married to VW and his unmovable contract. As much as last season was a disappointment, there is some hope that he is not completely shot. In 2006 he was excellent, while in 2007 he was hurt. In 2008 prorate his numbers over a full season and you are looking at a 30/.300 guy, while in 2009 he was hurt again. So where's the hope? Well there have been explanations whenever there have been struggles, and there's a track record that he has the talent to put up big numbers when healthy. A slight change in his approach and some good luck health wise and he could bounce back. And anyone who saw Vernon on the bases last year, saw a guy who looked just as quick as he ever has. No doubt though this is a make or break year for him, and I like the fact Cito has put him in a position of belief. Vernons at a point where he shouldn't be babied, and it's now time for him to put up. If he avoids the injury bug, 30hr, 15sb, and a .300 average is the ceiling. We don't have the natural cleanup type until the day Snider is ready, so for now let's go with the vet who needs to have a big year. If he flops, then I think it's official he's shot, but at least we will know.

On Snider Hitting 9th
This is an interesting one, but for me it comes down to gratification delay, the idea that top prospects should force your hand to be moved up rather than you pushing them beyond what they are yet capable of. If Snider starts to rake and Cito keeps him in the 9 hole, I'll have a big problem. But last years handling of Lind tells me, that if someone is performing Cito can make the proper adjustments when it comes to young studs. Snider is the future at cleanup, and hopefully he's hitting no lower than 6th by the end of the year. As long as that is the case, he is right on schedule...

Overall, this is a lineup with ALOT of questions, but there is some upside. Overbay and Encarnacion are in contract years. Wells could bounce back. Snider and Bautista could break out. I'm not counting on any of those things happening, but the good news is by the end of the season these question should be answered.